War, strikes and Brexit | Financial Times

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Well, not for me. It’s the half-term break in England and Wales, so I will be spending the coming days shepherding two of my offspring to study for GCSE exams.

There are upsides to the enforced home schooling. Given that we won’t get out of the house to visit London’s galleries, the Moules clan will not be disrupted by this week’s seven-day walkout by staff at the British Museum.

Yes, it is another week of British industrial unrest. Civil servants at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency will also strike on Monday, followed on Wednesday by university staff — although no longer teaching staff in Wales — and then ambulance workers in Northern Ireland on Friday.

At the least the UK government will be hard at work, with negotiations with the EU over the post-Brexit settlement for Northern Ireland rapidly coming to a head. The issue is not on the formal agenda for the meeting of EU member state heads in Brussels on Thursday, but London hopes it can make progress in discussions with these European leaders in the coming days.

Nato defence chiefs will also be meeting this week in Brussels to discuss the next steps in the ongoing brinkmanship with Russia. Invitees include Ukraine’s defence minister and his counterparts from Finland and Sweden.

And the good news? Kosovo will celebrate 15 years of independence on Friday and in Rio the annual Carnival kicks off on Saturday.

Before getting on to the economic and companies news, here is a plug for a few upcoming FT business education items.

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Thanks again for your comments and suggestions about the items mentioned. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or if you received this in your inbox just hit reply.

Economic data

Inflation and gross domestic product are this week’s main economic themes with data on the former from the UK, US, India and France and the latter from the EU and Japan. The UK also provides updates on its labour market with a new unemployment figure.

There are no monetary policy committee meetings from the big economies but on Tuesday Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida is expected to nominate as the next central bank governor the respected expert and supporter of the country’s ultra-loose monetary policy, Kazuo Ueda.

That would ensure a smooth transition from the incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, who is due to step down in April after overseeing a decade of policies designed to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels by buying vast quantities of government bonds.

Companies

We are over the hump of the current earnings season, especially in the US, but there are plenty in the diary for the next seven days.

Consumer goods brands are going large this week with figures out from Nestlé, Coca-Cola, Krispy Kreme and Kraft Heinz. These companies’ products might not be the most healthy items on the supermarket shelf, but then neither is inflation, which — if Unilever’s earnings report last week is anything to go by — is at least likely to be of benefit to the top line of these companies’ accounts. However, people are cutting back, meaning the potential for a drop in sales volumes.

The interest-rate rises to tame inflation have been good news for the retail banks with widening net interest margins for lenders such as NatWest, which is reporting full-year figures on Friday. This is good for shareholders because it will push up capital levels to much more than regulatory minimums and open the door to some quite lucrative dividend increases and stock buybacks. Also, NatWest is still 44.98 per cent owned by the UK government so the current earnings bonanza is good for British taxpayers, though as my colleague Helen Thomas notes it will not last.

Barclays, which reports on Wednesday, is a bit of a different story. Its UK business should benefit from rate rises, but it is much more of a credit card business, so people will be focused on default rates and provisions in the UK and US. Also the decline in earnings at its investment bank, particularly the advisory and capital markets unit, will be in sharp focus. You can get a fuller picture by reading this Inside Business report from FT deputy editor Patrick Jenkins.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU, European Commission publishes its winter interim economic forecast

• India, January consumer price index (CPI) inflation data

• UK, Office for National Statistics research on homeworking

• US, Federal Reserve board governor Michelle Bowman to speak at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers, in Orlando

• Results: Arista Networks Q4, Cadence Design Systems Q4, Denny’s Q4, Lend-Lease H1, Michelin FY, Rothschild & Co FY, SolarEdge Technologies Q4, Zee Entertainment Enterprises Q3

Tuesday

• EU, flash Q4 GDP figures

• EU, Q4 employment data

• France, Q4 unemployment rate

• Japan, flash Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

• Opec monthly oil market report

• UK, flash Q4 labour productivity estimate

• UK, February labour market statistics, including the unemployment rate

• UK, January insolvency figures for England and Wales

• US, January CPI inflation data

• Results: Airbnb Q4, Akamai Technologies Q4, Asahi Group FY, Avis Budget Q4, Carrefour Q4, Carr’s Group FY, Coca-Cola Company Q4, Kirin Holdings Q4, Marriott International Q4, Norsk Hydro Q4, Telecom Italia FY, ThyssenKrupp Q1, Toshiba Q3

Wednesday

• EU, trade balance figures

• France, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde takes part in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2022 at the European parliament in Strasbourg

• International Energy Agency oil market report

• UK, January CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation figures

• UK, December house price index figures

• US, Former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner is due to be sentenced in a Brooklyn federal court, where he pleaded guilty to corruption charges for his role in helping loot billions of dollars from Malaysia’s 1MDB development fund

• US, monthly retail sales figures

• US, NAHB Housing Market Index

• Results: Analog Devices Q1, Barclays FY, Cisco Systems Q2, Dunelm H1, Equinix Q4, Glencore FY, Hargreaves Lansdown H1, Heineken FY, Kering FY, Kraft Heinz Q4, Krispy Kreme Q4, Tui Group Q1, Yandex Q4

Thursday

• EU, European Central Bank economic bulletin

• Italy, trade balance figures

• Japan, January trade balance figures (AM local time)

• UK, Census 2021 NHS health data for England and Wales

• US, January PPI inflation data

• US, unemployment claims

• Results: Ahold Delhaize Q4, AIG Q4, Albemarle Q4, Applied Materials Q1, AutoStore Q4, Centrica FY, Coface FY, Commerzbank Q4, Hasbro Q4, Indivior Q4, Kerry Group FY, MJ Gleeson H1, Moneysupermarket.com FY, Nestlé FY, Orange FY, Paramount Q4, Pernod Ricard H1, Relx FY, Renault FY, SSP Group trading update, Standard Chartered Q4

Friday

• France, January CPI and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation data

• UK, January retail sales figures

• US, Super Nintendo World, an immersive park themed around the Japanese gaming brand Nintendo, opens at Universal Studios Hollywood

• US, Federal Reserve monetary policy report

• Results: Air Canada Q4, Air France-KLM FY, Albemarle Q4, Allianz FY, Deere & Co FY, EDF FY, Hermès FY, Kingspan FY, NatWest FY, Pod Point FY, Segro FY, Swiss Re FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium, Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg speaks to the press ahead of a two-day meeting of Nato member defence ministers on Tuesday and Wednesday, in Brussels

• Germany, citizens of Dresden are due to hold a candlelit vigil to commemorate victims of the extensive aerial bombardment of the city during the second world war. Concerns have been raised that far-right groups will hold protests.

• India, Aero India 2023 air show begins in Bengaluru

• United Arab Emirates World Government Summit begins in Dubai. Speakers at the three-day event include Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Egyptian president and Senegalese president Macky Sall.

• UK, a legal challenge by billionaire Guy Hands’ property company Annington Homes to government moves to unwind its £1.7bn sale and leaseback agreement for Ministry of Defence properties reaches the High Court in one of the year’s most significant judicial reviews

• UK, more than 100 members of the PCS union at the British Museum begin seven days of strike action over pay, pensions, job security and redundancy terms. PCS workers at the DVLA in Swansea will also stage a five-day walkout.

Tuesday

• EU, Ecofin meetings of member state finance ministers in Brussels

• UK, University and College Union members at more than 150 universities begin three days of strike action over pay, working conditions and pension cuts.

Wednesday

• Japan, inaugural launch by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency of the H3 heavy lift rocket, the new flagship rocket built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (AM local time)

• UK, auction planned of the car park in Leicester where the remains of King Richard III were discovered 10 years ago, with the adjacent Grey Friars building also going under the hammer. Guide price is £4mn to £4.1mn

• US, New York Fashion Week concludes

Thursday

• Germany, 73rd Berlin International Film Festival begins in the German capital

• UK, ambulance workers in Northern Ireland who are members of the Unite union stage two days of walkouts over pay and conditions.

Friday

Saturday

• Brazil, Carnival kicks off in Rio de Janeiro with a week of events that make it the world’s largest musical street festival

Sunday

• UK, the Bafta film awards ceremony is held in London

• US, the 500-mile Nascar Cup Series motor race, the Daytona 500, is held in Daytona Beach, Florida