This article is an on-site version of our Trade Secrets newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every Monday to Thursday
Hello from London where the arrival of Omicron has meant that tequila shots have been replaced with Covid-19 vaccine booster shots in the build-up to Christmas. The new variant of coronavirus offers an intriguing stress test on the degree to which economies will chug along or revert to behaviour conducive to bumpy supply chains, such as tough border restrictions and supercharged growth in online shopping.
Our main piece today is focused on whether ocean shipping disruptions have peaked. While many are confident that the turmoil has reached its nadir, it’s less clear to us that the logistics sector will enter 2022 on the up.
We want to hear from you. Send any thoughts to trade.secrets@ft.com or email me at harry.dempsey@ft.com
Shipping may be cheaper, but delays remain
There’s an air of optimism about supply chains right now. A dip in freight rates has led to suggestions from several macroeconomists penning their 2022 outlooks that the mess we have witnessed over the past year and a half is beginning to clear up.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note last week that “transport costs and shipping disruptions are starting to normalise”. Bel Air Investment Advisors, a wealth manager, said that “supply side issues such as shipping prices have already begun to normalise”.
Indeed, container spot market freight rates from east Asia to the US west coast have dropped significantly. After peaking at close to $9,000 per 40ft equivalent unit in November, the cost to ship cargo from the world’s manufacturing hub to the biggest consumer market has slumped more than 20 per cent to below $7,000, according to Xeneta, a data provider, and Compass Financial Technologies.
Further evidence of green shoots might appear to have come in the form of claims of a reduction in the number of waiting vessels and containers at the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex.
The situation at LA/Long Beach has become harder to assess since mid-November, however, because of new rules that require vessels to remain many miles offshore until given approval to approach. While that has made it seem as if congestion has eased, ships were merely waiting to berth further away.
Even so, calls to the ports, which are the busiest in the US, have declined in recent months, from 261 ships in September, to 246 in October and 216 last month, according to Sea/, a data platform owned by broker Clarksons.
However, many within the industry are hesitant to say disruption has reached an apex. They are not as confident as the macroeconomists that ocean freight operations are on the road to normalising.
“We haven’t seen any discernible improvement in the supply chain. The risk of further disruption has heightened with the new variant,” said Simon Heaney, an analyst at Drewry.
He said the recent drop in freight rates was because of the seasonal drop in shipments that would no longer make it in time for Christmas, together with the decision by the likes of carriers CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd to freeze rates for those shipping at the last-minute.
The decline in rates has also reversed on a global level. The Shanghai Containerised Freight index hit a record high last week at almost five times higher than the level at the start of 2020.
That is backed up by Flexport’s Ocean Timeliness Indicator, which measures the time from when cargo leaves an exporter until it is collected from the destination port. Both the China-to-Europe and China-to-US west coast routes remain at or close to records highs above 100 days.
Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, a consultancy, said that the recent reduction in vessel calls and easing of container congestion at Los Angeles/Long Beach had come at the expense of making the less visible queue of ships wait longer to dock. The number of container ships backed up waiting to berth was at a record 103 on Monday.
“At the heart of it, the problem is still you don’t have enough inland capacity to move the containers,” he said.
As Trade Secrets noted earlier this week, everyone from procurement managers to central bankers are craving more visibility on freight flows and bottlenecks through long, complex supply chains. Analysts, too, have been lamenting the lack of data tracking throughout the logistics network.
“Whether something is improving inland is pretty opaque. There is no easy-to-read index on warehouse capacity or availability. Nothing for chassis numbers. To get a broad picture regionally and globally, that is lacking,” Heaney said.
Of the many opacities in the supply chain, Peter Sand, of Xeneta, says that one of the most acute concerns is accurate data on Chinese government policy towards coronavirus outbreaks.
A spate of recent cases in Ningbo, a large port that was paralysed for a fortnight in August because of the pandemic, has sparked concerns of another shutdown that would set back any return to normality for ocean shipping. “The lack of transparency . . . is only adding to the mystery,” added Sand.
Some say having threads of information without a complete tapestry exacerbates the problems, leading to measures that ease strains in some areas only at the expense of worsening others. Jensen says the lack of a coherent picture not only prevents a solution to supply chain bottlenecks, but may even make matters worse. The reason: remedies for one issue may trigger snags elsewhere.
For example, Hamburg changed the rules concerning how early trucks with containers for export could arrive at the port. The idea was to reduce box congestion on the docks, quay and yard. A sensible move from a port perspective, Jensen said, but it led to a hold-up for many trucks already en route to the port, thus removing lorry capacity from Germany’s supply chain.
No doubt, a rush of capital-hungry supply chain visibility start-ups will claim they have the tools to provide the kind of useful data we all crave.
But if there is one thing that supply chains have proven during the pandemic, it’s that they are far from being technologically advanced enough for anyone to work out just how low shipping can sink. We cannot even call the nadir, let alone mitigate it.
Additional reporting by George Steer in London
Trade links
Air freight rates have soared to fresh highs as exporters rush to get their products on the shelves and into warehouses ahead of Christmas, providing yet more evidence that supply chain snags remain with us.
Ahead of a weekend referendum, public opinion in Taiwan favours reviving a ban (Nikkei, $) on US pork imports, a move that would have implications for Taipei’s relations with Washington.
Jude Webber has an interesting read on how Dublin’s port boom has revealed a shift in Ireland’s trade after Brexit. Francesca Regalado and Claire Jones
ラブドール・リアルドールは日本人がラブドール エロ運営するショップで購入することを強くおすすめします。
I have read so many articles about the blogger lovers but
this piece of writing is in fact a nice paragraph, keep
it up.
May I simply just say what a comfort to discover a person that genuinely knows
what they are discussing on the net. You certainly understand how to bring a problem to
light and make it important. More and more
people have to read this and understand this side of your story.
It’s surprising you aren’t more popular given that you definitely
possess the gift.
zestril
Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO?
I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not
seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thanks!
Are there OTC options for leptospirosis relief kamagra supe 160?
Every weekend i used to pay a visit this web site, because i wish
for enjoyment, since this this website conations in fact fastidious funny stuff
too.
Hello friends, nice article and good urging commented here,
I am genuinely enjoying by these.
ダッチワイフには、人形に最初からラブドール エロオナホールが付いているものと、後付けで自分のオナホを装着するものがあります。
What i do not understood is if truth be told how you’re not actually a lot more well-liked than you might be now.
You are so intelligent. You already know therefore considerably in relation to this topic, made me for my part imagine it from numerous various angles.
Its like women and men are not interested unless it’s one thing to do with Girl
gaga! Your individual stuffs nice. Always deal with it up!
Hello there! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be okay.
I’m undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.
Hello, i think that i saw you visited my blog
so i came to go back the want?.I am trying to find issues to improve my web site!I
assume its good enough to make use of a few of your concepts!!
Hello to every body, it’s my first pay a quick visit of this blog; this blog consists of awesome and in fact fine data in support of readers.
I’m curious to find out what blog platform you have been utilizing?
I’m experiencing some minor security problems with my latest blog and I would like to find something more safe.
Do you have any solutions?
generic cialis online
where can i buy synthroid online
Here you can read and see the worlds lastest news and trend.
I used to be able to find good info from your content.
Unquestionably believe that which you said. Your favorite reason appeared to be on the web the easiest
thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get
annoyed while people consider worries that they plainly don’t know about.
You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing
without having side-effects , people could take a signal.
Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
I will right away grab your rss feed as I can not find your e-mail subscription link or newsletter service.
Do you’ve any? Kindly permit me realize so that I could subscribe.
Thanks.
love dolls are immediately turning out to be a preferred option 人形 エロfor those searching to satisfy their wants in a secure and discreet way.
のような当社の新作シリコンドールはわオナドールずか数分で君を性的な至福に誘います。
I worked to decode the lyrics to the Mount Airy Lodge song. By “love of everything,” did they mean you would have to bring your love of volleyball and horseback riding and billiards?
Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your blog.
You have some really great articles and I believe I would be a good asset.
If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely
love to write some content for your blog in exchange for a link back to
mine. Please blast me an e-mail if interested.
Kudos!
synthroid price uk
You need to take part in a contest for one
of the best websites online. I’m going to highly recommend this blog!
Thanks for your marvelous posting! I quite enjoyed reading it, you are a great author.I will make
sure to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back very soon. I
want to encourage one to continue your great writing, have a nice day!
Excellent way of explaining, and pleasant piece of writing to get data concerning my presentation topic, which i am going to present
in institution of higher education.
synthroid 112 mcg cost
legit canadian pharmacy
zestril online
This page really has all the information and facts I needed about this subject
and didn’t know who to ask.
Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on websites I stumbleupon everyday.
It will always be helpful to read through content from other authors and
practice something from their web sites.
lisinopril price comparison
I will right away take hold of your rss as I can’t to find your email subscription link
or e-newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Please let me recognise in order that I may just subscribe.
Thanks.
How can I report suspicious online pharmacies vidalista 60 mg price?
Great blog! Do you have any helpful hints for aspiring writers?
I’m hoping to start my own blog soon but I’m a little
lost on everything. Would you suggest starting
with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many choices out there that I’m totally overwhelmed ..
Any ideas? Kudos!
lisinopril price in canada
buy lisinopril online canada
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good.
I do not know who you are but certainly you are
going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!
including victims of sex trafficking. According to one study, legal sex workers like Sebastian report less violence and a heightened sense of security working in the brothel industry than plying their trade illegally in other venues.
Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing the
other person’s blog link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do similar in favor of you.
indian pharmacies safe
I just like the valuable info you provide in your articles.
I’ll bookmark your blog and take a look at again right here regularly.
I’m rather certain I will learn a lot of new
stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!
Aw, this was an incredibly nice post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort
to make a great article… but what can I say… I hesitate a lot
and never manage to get nearly anything done.
Hmm it looks like your website ate my first
comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum
it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying
your blog. I too am an aspiring blog blogger but I’m
still new to the whole thing. Do you have any tips and hints for beginner blog writers?
I’d really appreciate it.
tadalafil generic cialis
lisinopril for sale
TPE Dolls This collection are all produced by TPE substance, your body, The top are all make with TPE. TPE doll is much cheaper
It’s very effortless to find out any matter on web as compared to books, as I found this piece of writing at this site.
Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after browsing through some of the post I
realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll
be bookmarking and checking back frequently!
It’s wonderful that you are getting thoughts from this piece of writing as well as from our argument
made at this time.
Feel free to visit my site :: สาระน่ารู้
Hi,
I am truly bemused by this commentary.
Very soon this website will be famous among all blog users,
due to it’s nice articles
Appreciating the time and energy you put into your blog and detailed
information you present. It’s good to come across a blog every
once in a while that isn’t the same old rehashed information. Wonderful read!
I’ve saved your site and I’m adding your
RSS feeds to my Google account.
I got this web page from my friend who shared with me
on the topic of this site and at the moment this time I
am browsing this website and reading very informative content at this place.
I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everybody else experiencing problems with your
blog. It appears as though some of the text in your posts are running
off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too?
This may be a problem with my browser because I’ve had this happen previously.
Kudos
Selecting the ideal sex doll involves understanding ドール オナニーthe nuanced differences between silicone and TPE. Silicone dolls boast a more rigid texture, mimicking the natural firmness of the human body.
order pharmacy online egypt
What OTC medications are available for keratosis pilaris relief cenforce 200?
You’re so cool! I don’t believe I have read a
single thing like that before. So wonderful to find someone with unique
thoughts on this topic. Seriously.. thanks for starting this
up. This web site is one thing that is required on the web,
someone with a bit of originality!
prinivil 10 mg tablet
buy tadalafil online paypal
My partner and I stumbled over here from a different web page and
thought I might check things out. I like what
I see so now i am following you. Look forward to checking out your
web page yet again.
Saved as a favorite, I really like your site!
Thanks in favor of sharing such a pleasant opinion, paragraph
is good, thats why i have read it entirely
Can I buy over-the-counter dental pain relief products without a prescription buy advair?
tadalafil online mexico
Greetings! Very useful advice within this post! It’s the little changes that will make the greatest changes.
Thanks a lot for sharing!
Woah! I’m really loving the template/theme of this blog.
It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s difficult to get that “perfect balance” between superb usability and appearance.
I must say you’ve done a great job with this.
In addition, the blog loads very quick for me on Chrome.
Superb Blog!
When someone writes an post he/she maintains the idea of a user in his/her mind
that how a user can know it. Therefore that’s why this post
is amazing. Thanks!
I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s
both educative and entertaining, and without a doubt, you’ve hit
the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that too few men and women are speaking intelligently about.
Now i’m very happy that I came across this in my hunt
for something regarding this.