What’s at Stake for Americans As Congress Faces Budget Showdown

• Lawmakers have until the end of September to reach an agreement on funding the government.
• If they don’t, the government will shut down.
• That would mean a delay in processing federal benefits, and it could cost the economy.

Congress is once again hurtling towards a preventable — and yet already contentious — budget showdown. If this sounds familiar, welcome back to a Congress that seems intent on flirting with fiscal calamity. 

With the House and Senate gearing up to get back in session, averting a shutdown and keeping the government funded is likely to be top of mind. Already, President Joe Biden has asked for short-term funding to help keep key programs running and head off a potential federal closure.

So why is this happening yet again? Well, the federal budget year closes out on September 30. That means that, by September 30, Congress needs to approve a budget, or approve stop-gap spending — like what Biden’s pushing for — to keep programs running. Otherwise, it’ll be shutdown time.

So what might happen next? Expect pushback from Republicans, whose slim majority in the House has some mixed views on what, exactly, should be a spending priority.  

Republicans already have conditions

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has reportedly told his party members that he believes it’ll be necessary to pass some sort of short-term funding measure, according to MSNBC. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer similarly told MSNBC that he has met with McCarthy and the duo agreed to try and move forward with short-term funding. 

That doesn’t mean his party is united behind a stopgap spending measure. The Republican Study Committee sent out a memo that opposes a “clean” continuing resolution, or a temporary measure that keeps funding at current levels, hoping instead to use a CR to pare back on Democratic spending priorities and push through conservative policies.

The memo, which Insider viewed, says that Republicans should use a CR to keep spending in line with pre-COVID levels, ensure that the CR’s end date doesn’t set up another shutdown fight during the December holidays, and “show unwavering commitment to fighting Biden’s radical agenda by coupling the CR with high priority conservative policies.”

The House Freedom Caucus has also pushed to get their own priorities in a short-term measure, saying in a letter that they won’t vote to move anything forward unless it includes cuts to funding for Ukraine, addresses the “unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department and FBI,” and cracks down on border policies.

“We will oppose any attempt by Washington to revert to its old playbook of using a series of short-term funding extensions designed to push Congress up against a December deadline to force the passage of yet another monstrous, budget busting, pork filled, lobbyist handout omnibus spending bill at year’s end and we will use every procedural tool necessary to prevent that outcome,” the caucus wrote.

That might all spell trouble for getting a CR passed, since Democrats would likely balk at those stipulations, and GOPers seem adamant to oppose a CR that maintains the status quo.

What might happen if the government does shut down

A government shutdown would jeopardize a range of federal benefits that millions of Americans rely on. Once a shutdown starts, many federal employees can no longer work — and this means that there aren’t enough people to facilitate programs like Social Security and SNAP. While the benefits would still flow, Americans relying on those programs would likely see processing delays and limited customer service. 

Given the frequent looming threat of a shutdown as lawmakers squabble over how to best fund the government, the Office of Management and Budget even has contingency plans for federal agencies that outline what they should do if funding lapses. National parks would likely shut down, and applications for small business and housing loans would be halted as well. 

The OMB contingency plan for the Department of Agriculture, for example, stated that even in the event of a shutdown, it would continue funding “essential Federal activities and funding to maintain the core programs of the nutrition safety net, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Child Nutrition (CN) programs, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC).”

It’s hard to determine every program that would be impacted by a government shutdown, but the longer a potential shutdown would drag on, the more severe its impact on Americans and the economy would likely be. For example, the longest shutdown in history occurred under former President Donald Trump in 2018, which lasted 35 days. During that period, about 380,000 federal employees were furloughed and an additional 420,000 employees were expected to work with delayed pay for the duration of the shutdown. The deal Trump ended up signing promised to pay back all impacted employees that went without pay. 

But it came at a cost — the Congressional Budget Office estimated at the time that the 35-day shutdown cost the US economy at least $11 billion. 

With both chambers of Congress soon to be back in session, lawmakers will face the familiar battle of making policy concessions to keep the government funded — or subject Americans to another government shutdown.