Turkey returns to the polls

Hello and welcome to the working week.

This week ends as the last one began, dominated by elections in Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the favourite going into the presidential run-off, but then commentators said the reverse last week and look where that got them.

Joe Biden flies straight back from the G7 Summit to try to finally resolve the US deficit ceiling impasse. It has already seriously undermined his geopolitical agenda, forcing him to cancel scheduled meetings with Pacific Island nations and Asian partners in the Quad security network.

JPMorgan Chase hosts an investor day in New York on Monday, with presentations by members of the executive management team. Chief executive Jamie Dimon has demanded an SEC investigation into the behaviour of investors shorting bank stocks to “finish” the sector’s recent disruption.

British politicians, magic circle lawyers, bankers and those who generally aspire to influence in UK society need travel no further this week than west London for a sport of high-quality networking. The Royal Horticultural Society’s Chelsea Flower Show, a carnival of flora that has in recent years become a magnet for movers and shakers, bursts into life on Tuesday. Get an early glimpse of the 2023 displays from this piece by FT columnist Jane Owen.

The Ukraine conflict will never be far from the headlines. In the diary, Nato’s spring parliament session concludes on Monday with Russia’s aggression high on the agenda.

As summer beckons, the latest earnings season fades but there is a full diary for economic data reports, particularly from the US and UK. The main themes for this week’s results are retail (Marks and Spencer, Gap, Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch and Kingfisher), utilities (SSE, Severn Trent and United Utilities) and tech (Nvidia). Full details below.

Thank you for those who get in touch about the Week Ahead. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or if you have received this in your inbox just hit reply.

Economic data

The notable reports in a run of American and British data this week are revised US first-quarter gross domestic product figures, the May minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting meeting and UK inflation figures.

The Bank of England is expecting the annual rate of consumer price inflation to drop almost 2 percentage points from 10.1 per cent in March to 8.4 per cent in April, above the consensus, which is closer to 8 per cent.

For international economic comparison, there is the latest download of purchasing managers’ index data for manufacturing and services across the G7 nations.

Central banks in Indonesia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey are expected to leave their interest rates unchanged.

Companies

AI mania has sent the share price of Nvidia through the roof, more than doubling this year. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are the main workhorses for training large language models — and with perfect timing, the company started shipping its new H100 chips this year, the first GPUs specifically designed to handle transformers, the crucial technology behind AI large language models. There’ll therefore be much interest at Wednesday’s earnings call in how fast the company has been able to scale up production of the H100 to meet the latent demand.

The restaurant industry by way of contrast is having a rotten time. On Monday Prezzo holds a company voluntary arrangement meeting, aiming to close stores and cut staff to recover the core business. If approved by at least 75 per cent of the company’s creditors, 46 of Prezzo’s 143 UK sites will close. But will it be enough?

Crucial economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China, policy rate decision

• EU, May FCCI flash consumer confidence indicator

• Japan, core machine orders

• JPMorgan Chase investor day in New York

• Prezzo company voluntary arrangement meeting

• UK, Rightmove House Price Index

• Results: Big Yellow FY, Ryanair FY, Wincanton FY, Zoom Communications Q1

Tuesday

• Société Générale chief executive Frédéric Oudéa steps down at today’s AGM when his term expires. He is succeeded by Slawomir Krupa.

• EU, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: Cips/S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• UK, public sector net borrowing data

• UK, Kantar’s monthly supermarket sales, market share and inflation data

• US, April new residential sales figures

• Results: Agilent Technologies Q2, AutoZone Q3, Cranswick FY, Intuit Q3, SSP Group H1, Statkraft Q1, Topps Tiles H1, Victorian Plumbing H1

Wednesday

• European Central Bank (ECB) Financial Stability Review

• Germany, Ifo Business Climate Index

• Nigeria, Q1 GDP figures

• UK, April consumer price index (CPI), retail price index (RPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate figures

• US, Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes

• Results: Abercrombie & Fitch Q1, Analog Devices Q2, Aviva Q1 trading update, Close Brothers Q3 trading update, Kingfisher Q1 trading update, Marks and Spencer FY, Nvidia Q1, Severn Trent FY, SSE FY

Thursday

• France, business confidence figures

• Germany, final Q1 GDP figures

• Turkey, monthly interest rate decision

• UK, Q1 immigration statistics

• US, revised Q1 GDP and consumer spending figures

• Results: Autodesk Q1, Best Buy Q1, Costco Wholesale Q3, Dollar Tree Q1, Gap Q1, Generali Q1, Hill & Smith trading update and AGM, Johnson Matthey FY, Medtronic Q4, Pets at Home FY, Qinetiq FY, Ralph Lauren Q4, Tate & Lyle FY, United Utilities FY, Workspace Group FY

Friday

• France, consumer confidence figures

• UK, April retail sales figures

• US, University of Michigan sentiment

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Brussels, Nato parliamentary assembly Spring Session concludes. Speakers include Ukraine defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.

• France, ECB policymaker and Bank of France governor François Villeroy de Galhau speaks about monetary policy transmission at a conference at the French central bank.

• South Korea, a summit marking 60 years of EU-South Korea diplomatic relations takes place in Seoul between European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and her South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol

• Mongolia, French president Emmanuel Macron completes a two-day state visit to the country following the G7 Summit.

• Papua New Guinea, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to co-chair a summit of Pacific Island leaders with his counterpart in Papua New Guinea James Marape, the first visit to the country by an Indian PM.

• UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union working as customer service advisers in personal taxation operations for HMRC in Glasgow and Newcastle upon Tyne resume an 18-day strike.

• US, South Carolina Republican senator Tim Scott to make a “major announcement”, widely expected to be his decision to enter the 2024 presidential nomination race.

Tuesday

• Brussels, EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defence) to discuss supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

• UK, the RHS Chelsea Flower Show, a key networking event in the London calendar, opens in the gardens of the Royal Hospital Chelsea.

• UK, winner of the International Booker Prize announced in London.

• UK, ballot opens for members of the Royal College of Nursing to vote on whether to take strike action in response to the government’s latest pay offer. The ballot closes on June 23. A separate strike ballot among 10,000 London Underground workers by the RMT union closes today.

Wednesday

• Germany, ECB president Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 25th anniversary celebration for the central bank in Frankfurt

• UK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and London Stock Exchange chief executive Julia Hoggett speak at the Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation in association with the COP 27 Egyptian Presidency.

• UK, a two-day strike begins by Ulverston-based workers at pharmaceutical company GSK, part of a series of walkouts throughout May at six sites across England and Scotland.

Thursday

• UK, 1,400 security officers at Heathrow airport resume strikes over pay, part of an eight-day programme of action throughout May. The Unite union says it expects the action to cause “inevitable disruption and delays”.

• US, Bank of England monetary policy committee member Jonathan Haskel speaks at Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

• US, court hearing in New York for Steve Bannon, charged with money laundering, conspiracy, scheming to defraud for his role in the ‘We Build the Wall’ scheme.

Friday

• Bermuda, Bermuda Day. Financial markets closed.

• Hong Kong, Buddha’s birthday. Financial markets closed.

Saturday

Sunday

• France, French Open tennis tournament begins

• India, prime minister Narendra Modi expected to inaugurate the country’s new parliament building in New Delhi

• Italy, municipal elections second round run-offs

• Spain, regional and municipal elections

• Turkey, presidential election runoff

• UK, TransPennine Express’s contract expires, bringing the company temporarily into operator of last resort status by the British government