FirstFT: Japan’s ruling coalition set for victory after Abe assassination

Prime minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling coalition is heading for a clear victory in elections for Japan’s upper house, presenting a historic opportunity to revise the country’s pacifist constitution after the assassination of Shinzo Abe boosted voter turnout.

The vote came two days after the country’s longest-serving prime minister was killed by a lone gunman while giving a campaign speech in the western city of Nara.

Analysts had initially expected voter turnout to be a historic low. But projections from state broadcaster NHK suggest that more people voted than in the 2019 election after political parties united in condemning Abe’s shooting as “a challenge to democracy”. 

The campaign was fought over the cost of living crisis and security issues tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not constitutional reform. But the strong outcome gives Kishida, known for his moderate views, a chance to revise Article 9, which stipulates that land, sea and air forces “will never be maintained”. This was a life-long ambition for the hawkish Abe. 

As of midnight local time, NHK’s exit polls suggest that the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, won 73 of the 125 seats up for grabs. Adding the seats won by two other parties backing constitutional reform, the ruling coalition clinched a two-thirds majority needed to revise the constitution, which was written by US occupying forces after the second world war.

The hurdles to a revision remain high. In a poll conducted by NHK ahead of the election, 37 per cent of those surveyed said the constitution should be revised, while 23 per cent were against a revision. Parties in favour of reform are also divided on which part of the constitution should be amended.

The win also gives Kishida a freer hand to shape his policy and appoint people close to him in powerful positions. Analysts said, however, that the loss of Abe, the nation’s most polarising and influential leader in decades, could rock the power balance inside the LDP.

Thanks for reading FirstFT Asia and here is the rest of the day’s news — Amanda

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The day ahead

Tory party elections The UK Conservative party’s backbenchers elect new officials for the 1922 committee today. The first task for this newly elected parliamentary body will be to agree on rules for electing the next British prime minister, which is expected to take place by early September.

Vigils for former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe A vigil for the country’s longest-serving prime minister is expected tonight in Japan, followed by a funeral on Tuesday. Abe was assassinated in the city of Nara on Friday during a campaign speech, shocking a nation where political violence and gun ownership are rare.

What else we’re reading

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Abortion bans will hit the poor hardest Denying women access to abortion in many US states will worsen inequality and increase financial hardships for women and their families, Caitlin Gilbert reports. Studies show that children of women denied abortions were more likely to live in a household that could not afford to pay for basic living expenses compared to children of women who received an abortion earlier.

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Opinion: What Shinzo Abe’s assassination means for ‘Pax Japonica’ The assassination of Japan’s former PM prompted flashbacks of the country’s bloody political past. While Pax Japonica will most likely remain, it is dangerous to assume that such stability is determined by low public interest in politics, argues Leo Lewis.

Drier, hotter weather fuels Europe’s fire season It’s getting hotter earlier in Europe. Last month marked Europe’s second warmest June on record, according to the EU’s earth observation agency Copernicus. The hotter and drier weather is making the continent more prone to combustion. Current areas under wildfire in the Mediterranean are four times greater than the 15-year average, Steven Bernard and Mumena Choudhury report.

Opinion: Get ready for salaries to become more public Pay transparency is on the rise in the US and Europe to close the gender pay gap. But the burden should not fall on women to be more assertive about pay rises, argues Pilita Clark. For decades, countries have mandated equal pay for equal work.

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