Mortgage And Refinance Rates, June 17

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. For example, those for conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages just inched higher. That was a pleasant surprise because a sharp rise had looked on the cards first thing that morning.

So far this morning, markets are signaling that mortgage rates today might be unchanged or barely changed. But those early signals are currently less reliable than they normally are.

Markets will be closed next Monday to mark the Juneteenth federal holiday. We’ll be back next Tuesday. But the weekend edition of this daily report will appear tomorrow, as usual.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

So much for hopes that Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting might reduce volatility for mortgage rates. They’re still bouncing around and unpredictable.

I suspect that, when they eventually settle down, they’ll be high and will stay that way. But others disagree. And there’s certainly a good possibility of falls between now and then.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.26% from 3.43%. (Good for mortgage rates.) But most of that fall happened yesterday. More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices increased to $114.51 from $113.26 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices nudged up to $1,846 from $1,834 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — held steady at 16 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

I guess yesterday’s movements in mortgage rates shouldn’t have come as a surprise, though I wasn’t expecting them. Following the Federal Reserve’s announcements on Wednesday, those rates fell sharply.

I might still have been right to interpret that as markets deciding they’d overreacted to the threat the Fed’s meeting posed. That analysis continues to make sense.

What I should perhaps have guessed is that markets are chaotic at the moment as they face a mountain of uncertainty. And “deciding” something means little when changes of mind happen daily or hourly.

You could see that in action yesterday. The morning started with mortgage rates (or, more accurately, yields on mortgage-backed securities, the type of bond that largely determine those rates) soaring. And they stayed high for most of the day. Then, late in the afternoon, they fell back, ending the day close to where they started it.

The future for mortgage rates

Nobody can anticipate such gyrations. And the message to take away from yesterday is that my daily and weekly predictions for mortgage rates should be taken with a pinch of salt. I can tell you only the direction of travel at about 10 a.m. (ET) each business day.

For days and weeks to come, we might see a lot more days like yesterday. Eventually, things will settle down. And, when they do, I suspect we’ll see a clear resumption of the upward trend. However, I’m hoping it will be a much more gentle climb than we’ve grown used to this year.

Why do I think there are more rises to come? Because investors in fixed-rate bonds — including those mortgage-backed securities — hate inflation. Fewer buy bonds when inflation is high, which pushes prices lower and yields and rates higher. And, if you’ve spotted reliable signs that inflation is going away anytime soon, you’re a more astute observer than I am.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Recent trends

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

Freddie’s June 16 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.78% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.23%. That will have missed a sharp and moderate rise earlier that week, as well as Wednesday’s fall.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts — updated today

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Jun. 16, and the MBA’s on Jun. 10. Freddie’s were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly, so they’re already looking stale.

Forecaster	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22	Q1/23
Fannie Mae	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Freddie Mac	4.8%	4.8%	5.0%	5.0%
MBA	5.1%	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look that way.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.