Mortgage And Refinance Rates, May 6

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates jumped yesterday, hitting a new 13-year high. It’s looking like markets are rethinking their responses to the Federal Reserve’s announcements on Wednesday.

So far this morning, it’s appearing as if mortgage rates today might rise again. But, amid such volatility, it’s perfectly possible they could reverse course or move even higher as the day progresses.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Wednesday’s good news lasted less than 24 hours. And, disappointingly, the long-term upward trend for mortgage rates appears intact.

Of course, nothing’s certain. And we might still see periods of falls. But I fear we haven’t yet seen the end of rising rates.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes nudged higher to 3.08% from 3.03%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices rose to $111.84 from $110.53 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices fell to $1,877 from $1,897 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — tumbled to 28 from 42 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Yesterday, I wrote: “Occasionally, markets take a while to digest information. And it’s just possible we’ll see more reaction to yesterday’s [Fed] announcements today and tomorrow.”

Unfortunately, that proved correct. Yesterday evening, The Wall Street Journal (paywall) was talking about “the euphoria that reigned on Wall Street Wednesday” following that day’s Fed news conference being “wiped out.” And then some. Thursday was an even worse day for stock markets than for bonds and mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, The Financial Times overnight posed in a headline the question, “What Just Happened?” And it answered itself, “There is precious little logic left in the market.”

This morning

This morning’s employment situation report for April showed slightly stronger growth in jobs than economists had expected. The number of new jobs was 428,000 against a forecast of 400,000 from MarketWatch. It was the 12th consecutive month of job gains above 400,000. And the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%.

Usually, markets focus on the headline “nonfarm payrolls” figure, which counts the number of jobs created or lost each month. But CNBC noted yesterday afternoon:

Financial markets were rattled Thursday and are worried about inflation, so the wage component could be the most important part of the report.

The Wall Street Journal (still paywalled) reported on that component after the data were released:

Average hourly earnings rose 5.5% over the past year, a historically big rise that matched gains from earlier this year. But the shorter-term trend suggests wages grew less robustly than thought. Earnings rose 0.3% in April from a month earlier, slower than Wall Street analyst expectations.

That sounds like good news for Wall Street (though not for employees). But we’ll see how it plays out over the course of the day.

Still, as long as “there is precious little logic left in the market,” we could be in for a bumpy ride. So strap in for some volatility and unpredictability.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Recent trends

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been shooting up since the start of 2022.

Freddie’s May 5 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.27% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.10%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Apr. 19, Freddie’s on Apr. 18, and the MBA’s on Apr. 13.

Forecaster	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22	Q1/23
Fannie Mae	4.6%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Freddie Mac	4.8%	4.8%	5.0%	5.0%
MBA	4.7%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. I’m afraid I’m less optimistic than any of them.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.