“Regional and community banks currently account for a disproportionately large share of office real estate lending,” said Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul. “Further consolidation of the banking industry may prove to be the solution that allows the banking industry at-large to work out problem loans.”
“Lots more price declines are coming,” warned Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasted that commercial and multifamily mortgage transactions will fall to $654 billion this year, a 20% plunge from $816 billion in the previous year.
“We expect maturing loans to begin to break the logjam and provide greater clarity as this year goes on. However, it may take until 2025 for volumes to get back to previous years’ levels,” said Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real estate research at MBA.
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