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How High Will Rates Go?


Will mortgage rates go up in 2022?

As the U.S. economy continues to climb out of its Covid slump, and as inflation puts upward pressure on interest rates, most experts agree mortgage rates will climb higher in 2022.

Just how high will they go? Industry sources are split on that. But they mostly agree on 30-year rates in the high-3% to low-4% range by the end of next year.

That means it’s in your best interest to buy or refinance early in 2022 if you’re banking on today’s low rates to help you save.

Get started shopping for mortgage rates (Dec 1st, 2021)

In this article (Skip to…)

Overview of 2022 mortgage rates forecast

We interviewed eight mortgage, housing, and finance professionals to get their mortgage rate forecasts for 2022.

By the end of next year, these industry experts predict 30-year fixed mortgage rates could rise to between 3.4% and 4.1%. When it comes to 15-year mortgage rates, they predict an average between 3.0% and 3.5%.

Average interest rate predictions put 30-year fixed rates at 3.88% and 15-year fixed rates at 3.27% in 2022.

Industry Expert 30-Year Fixed-Rate Prediction 2022 15-Year Fixed-Rate Prediction 2022
Selma Hepp (CoreLogic) 3.40% N/A
Rick Sharga (RealtyTrac) 3.75% 3.25%
Al Lord (Lexerd Capital Management) 3.75% 3%
Bruce Ailion (Realtor) 4% 3.50%
Stephen Adamo (Embrace Home Loans) 4% 3.50%
Than Merrill (FortuneBuilders) 4% 3%
Lyle Solomon (Oak View Law Group) 4% 3.25%
Andreis Bergeron ( 4.10% 3.40%
Average Prediction 3.88% 3.27%

Put in perspective, it’s important to remember that mortgage interest rates have remained relatively affordable. And for the foreseeable future, they shouldn’t stray too far from all-time lows.

Ponder that, 40 years ago, mortgage interest rates were close to 17%. With that in mind, an increase to even 4% by the end of 2022 doesn’t seem too scary.

Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Dec 1st, 2021)

Expert mortgage rate predictions for 2022

Industry experts generally agree that mortgage rates will rise in 2022. But they’re split on just how high rates will go. Here are 30- and 15-year mortgage rates forecasts from the eight professionals we interviewed, along with the reasoning behind their predictions.

Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist, CoreLogic

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.4%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: N/A

Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic, says it’s easy to see the factors that will probably drive mortgage rates higher in 2022.

“Inflation, government intervention in the housing market, the supply of homes for sale, and consumer debt will all play a part,” she says. “Further gradual increases in mortgage rates will be driven by the broadening of inflation and inflationary expectations as well as the continued supply shortages of labor, materials, and energy.”

With a little less demand and a little more supply next year, Hepp expects homes for sale will remain on the market a bit longer with fewer competing bidders, which should moderate home price growth.

“CoreLogic’s Home Price Index Forecast has the annual average rise in our national price index slowing from about 15% in 2021 to 5% in 2022,” she says.

Rick Sharga, executive vice president, RealtyTrac

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.75%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.25%

“I think it’s likely we’ll see mortgage rates increase in 2022,” says Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac.

He explains, “The biggest question is whether today’s high inflation is transitory, as the Biden Administration claims, or will be more pervasive. Higher inflation almost always results in higher mortgage interest rates. If the Federal Reserve Bank decides it needs to do something more forceful to slow down the rate of inflation, it will probably raise the Fed Funds rate, which creates a higher rate environment overall.”

“If the Federal Reserve Bank decides it needs to do something more forceful to slow down the rate of inflation, it will probably raise the Fed Funds rate, which creates a higher rate environment overall.”

Consider that the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasuries and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is below its historic level of about 2 points, so mortgage rates could move up a few basis points if that relationship were to simply revert to historically normal levels next year, he adds.

“A few factors could drive mortgage rates down in 2022. First, returns on many investment products are still historically low. Central banks in a number of countries deployed negative interest rates in 2021. Second, many international economies are still fairly volatile, and that often drives investments toward US Treasuries in a flight to safety, driving down yields, which could have a similar impact on mortgage rates,” Sharga says.

Al Lord, founder, Lexerd Capital Management

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.75%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3%

Al Lord, founder of Lexus Capital Management, say two widely talked about factors will influence the direction of mortgage rates in 2022.

“The first is the Fed’s tapering of the asset repurchases program. Reducing asset repurchases creates less money supply in the market and increases interest and mortgage rates,” he says.

“Second is the shortage of homes for sale and limited new construction activity. The high home prices and the limited supply of homes, either from resale or new construction, will keep the demand for mortgages lower compared to 2021. As a result, mortgage rates will tend to remain near the same or marginally decline, I believe. The result of these two counteracting factors will lead to higher mortgage rates by the middle of 2022, if not earlier.”

Expect inflation to accelerate in 2022 while home prices continue to escalate.

“That’s why my advice to homeowners is to purchase a property sooner than later and lock in still moderate mortgage rates,” adds Lord.

Bruce Ailion, real estate attorney and Realtor

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 4%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.5%

Bruce Ailion, a Realtor and real estate attorney, isn’t very optimistic that 2022 rates will remain as enticingly low as they have been this year.

“When inflation first appeared, it was hoped that it would be transitory. Today, it is considered baked into the future,” he cautions. “The 2022 inflation rate is expected to settle at 4.5%, hopefully receding to 3.5% in 2023. Expected higher interest rates will place pressure on the Fed to slow the economy through interest rate increases.”

He reminds readers that the Fed has signaled the intent to increase rates by slowing their purchase of government bonds, which will cause rates overall to increase next year.

“But rates could go lower-than-expected next year if we see a consumer backlash and unwillingness to pay higher prices. The labor pool that has been sitting on the sidelines of this recovery may reenter the workforce, as well, slowing down wage inflation. These and other actions are unlikely to occur, however,” he explains.

Stephen Adamo, president of National Retail Production, Embrace Home Loans

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 4%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.5%

Stephen Adamo of Embrace Home Loans also believes rates are likely to increase in 2022, especially with the Fed already beginning its tapering of monthly bond purchases.

“That said, a macroeconomic problem could slow the increase in rates and possibly even bring rates slightly lower. The data around the pandemic has improved, even though the country is now seeing an increase in COVID cases. If the pandemic creates more challenges next year, we could see rates decrease from where there are today,” notes Adamo.

It’s more likely that, by late next year, we’ll see a moderate rate increase of at least 50 basis points higher than today, he says.

Than Merrill, CEO, FortuneBuilders

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 4.0%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.0%

The good news? Borrowing costs are just about as attractive as they’ve ever been, according to Than Merrill of FortuneBuilders. The bad news? “Inflation brought about by government stimuli in the wake of a global pandemic has forced the Fed’s hand to increase borrowing costs,” he says.

For these and other reasons, he predicts that rates are more likely to head north than go south by this time next year.

“If inflation proves to be transitory, it’s safe to assume that interest rates will increase at a faster pace than they did in 2021. It should be noted, however, that the Fed can’t increase interest rates faster than the economy can strengthen. So while interest rates are expected to rise, they most likely won’t increase dramatically,” Merrill explains.

Lyle Solomon, principal attorney, Oak View Law Group

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 4%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.25%

For Lyle Solomon, attorney at Oak View Law Group, the equation is simple: “When consumers can spend more, which is true today, they can afford to buy homes. That increases the demand for mortgages, which is likely to happen in 2022,” he says.

Expected stronger economic growth, which may lead to higher treasury yields, is the biggest reason why Solomon anticipates a 4% average rate for a 30-year mortgage next year.

“On the other hand, if inflation gets under control, mortgage rates will go down,” he adds.

Andreis Bergeron, founding member/head of brokerage,

30–year mortgage rates forecast: 4.1%

15–year mortgage rates forecast: 3.4%

Andreis Bergeron of sees 30-year interest rates moving slightly above 4% in 2022. In addition to Federal Reserve policy, the Fed Funds rate, and inflation, Bergeron points the finger at the bond market, gross domestic product, and housing trends among the elements that will impact mortgage interest rates in 2022.

“Rates are expected to rise in the coming years driven by the largest year-over-year inflation growth in 30 years and the fact that the Fed Funds are expected to hike rates,” he says.

Considering that inflation growth is basically double where current mortgage rates sit, lenders will be forced to increase rates to make a profit margin on their products next year, he continues.

Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Dec 1st, 2021)

Should you wait to buy a home until 2022?

Are you on the fence about purchasing a property? Keep in mind that low mortgage rates are helpful, but they shouldn’t be your deciding factor. Think carefully before committing to a mortgage loan and locking in a rate until you are financially ready.

“Don’t make a bad decision and rush into a home purchase strictly to take advantage of an interest rate that’s, say, 0.5% better than recently,” recommends Sharga.

“However,” he adds, “it’s important to keep in mind that home prices are also likely to continue to rise in 2022, so waiting to see if prices are interest rates drop could cost you in terms of a higher home price and a higher-priced loan.”

“Prospective buyers should strongly consider buying at today’s prices and rates because they’re only expected to go higher for the foreseeable future.”

Merrill seconds those sentiments.

“The current market environment suggests borrowing costs and home values will increase. Prospective buyers should strongly consider buying at today’s prices and rates because they’re only expected to go higher for the foreseeable future,” he says.

Consider one example. 

Say you’re buying a  $300,000 home at today’s average 30-year rate of 3.10% (per Freddie Mac). With a 20% down payment, your monthly principal and interest payment would come out to $1,025. 

Now imagine you’re buying in late 2022 with a 3.75% interest rate. The same loan would cost you $1,100 per month, adding $75 to your payment. And you’d pay an additional $31,190 in interest over 30 years.

To get the best interest rate possible, be sure to get your financial house in order first, suggests Hepp.

“Paying down your outstanding debt on credit cards, auto loans, and student debt will help you obtain approval for a mortgage loan,” says Hepp.

Additionally, check your credit score and work to improve a low number.

“If your score is high, you are likely to qualify for lower interest rates. So work to boost your credit score by lowering your credit utilization ratio, removing negative items from your credit report, and paying off your debts,” advises Solomon.

Should you wait to refinance?

The experts agree: The best move is to refinance sooner rather than later if you want to reset your mortgage and capitalize on today’s low interest rates. With rates likely on the rise in 2022, potential savings for homeowners looking to refinance could be diminished.

“Try to refinance by the early months of 2022, not later,” says Lord.

Solomon says that rising interest rates are expected to decrease the number of refinancing applications in 2022. It stands to reason, then, that there’s no time like the present to lock in a low refi rate.

“It’s probably time to stop considering and start moving on that loan refinance application,” agrees Sharga.

Get started on your home loan refinance (Dec 1st, 2021)

The bottom line

With many experts all forecasting rate hikes, you may come to the conclusion that it’s better to lock in a mortgage rate sooner than later.

But never forget that even the most knowledgeable experts can’t forecast the future with 100% accuracy. Mortgage interest rates next year may go higher, could drop lower, or may mirror what we see today.

It is important to remember that next year could  produce different outcomes in rates — even downward movement.

If you buy or refinance today, you can always take advantage of lower rates again in the future.

The moral of the story? Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket or take unnecessary risks based on hunches. Weigh your rate lock decision carefully and don’t try to perfectly time the market.

Crunch your financials, consult closely with an experienced mortgage lending professional, and strategize your short-and long-term homeownership plans before pulling the trigger.

Verify your new rate (Dec 1st, 2021)

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    Heavy drug users will have a greater concentration of THC in their system and will need longer to flush out their system of weed remnants.
    Women have a slower metabolic rate due to higher levels of body fat. Therefore, traces of weed last longer in a woman’s body compared to that of a man. If you are a woman, the sooner you begin your THC detox, the better chances you will have of retaining your job.
    Smoking vs. Vaping vs. Edibles
    The time duration for THC staying in your body will also depend on what form you take it. Detection time for smoking marijuana use is the shortest, and traces of weed will leave your body sooner if you are a smoker. However, ingesting or eating marijuana will cause THC levels to stay higher for a longer time.
    Commonly Used Drug Tests
    Even when the effects of smoking or consuming marijuana are gone, chemical remnants called metabolites are still present in your body. These can be detected in a drug test from saliva, blood, urine, hair, and fingernails.
    Urine Test
    There is a high chance that your employer will ask you to take the urine test for drugs. It is one of the cheapest and most convenient drug tests and is therefore the most common drug test used by employers.
    Moderate drug users may fail a urine test one to three weeks after their last consumption, and a heavy user can test positive for 30 to 45 days. Even if you only smoke weed once or twice a week, results can still show up positive for up to three days.
    When you reach the lab for the drug test, you will be asked to leave your belongings in another room. They will instruct you to go to the bathroom to collect your urine sample in a specimen cup.
    A sample collected from home will not be accepted. If it is collected hours before, it will not be the right temperature. So, if you are thinking about swapping urine, it will probably not work. However, people use synthetic urine to fake drug test results.
    Blood Test
    Blood tests have a pretty small window to detect THC in your system. But, it is detectable in the bloodstream within seconds of use. So, roadside urine tests for drivers might use blood samples to look for traces of marijuana in the body.
    It will also depend on the dose and how long it will stay in the system. This test is appropriate in those situations when the suspect is still under the influence of drugs. If a person has a high metabolism, it will be eliminated from the body pretty soon. Heavy smokers can test positive for a longer duration compared to those that take just a few puffs occasionally.
    Hair Test
    For daily users, hair tests can detect weed for up to 90 days. Trace amounts of weed reach the hair follicles via small blood vessels and can therefore be detected. However, these tests are difficult to perform and can be unreliable at times.
    This is why hair tests are rare. They may also take up to a week for the traces of THC to show up. However, if you are looking for a new job, start your detox as soon as possible, as a hair test can pick up the use of weed even after a few months of the last use.
    Saliva Test
    Saliva tests or mouth swabs tests are more common with traffic law enforcement to test if a driver is operating a vehicle under the influence. This is because saliva tests are accurate only for recent use and cannot detect THC used some time ago.
    These tests are sometimes used as an alternative to urine drug tests, and the reason is that these are easier to administer and can be supervised while you collect the samples. Mouth swab tests are growing in popularity because they cannot be tampered with.
    Which Drug Test Should I Expect?
    There is no sure way of knowing what kind of drug test your employer will administer. The urine test is the most common method due to its low cost and convenience. But, government agencies and larger companies still stick to the blood test.
    The hair testing method is still on the rise, as it can detect drug use even months in the past. Some government agencies have also started using hair tests to detect drug use up to a few months back. In contrast, saliva tests are more common for roadside testing.
    Other Solutions When Detox Is Not an Option
    At-Home Drug Tests
    You might not have time for a detox program, but you can at least use a drug test kit to see if there is any THC left in your system. If the drug test is scheduled too soon for you to detox, a urine testing kit will help you determine the presence of THC or cannabis in your system.
    It will detect the metabolites found in your urine, and it takes just about five minutes to give the result.
    You can interpret the test results by noticing the lines on the kit. Two lines means that the result is negative. If you see a single line on the control region, this means you are positive and traces of weed are still present in your body. In this case, you must start taking detox drinks immediately.
    No lines would mean that you need to take a re-test, and you will need to use a new kit in this case. Seeing no lines implies that there has been an error during the testing procedure.
    Cheat the Drug Test with Fake Pee
    If there is nothing else you can do and the drug test is staring right at you, maybe you should consider faking it. Yes, it is probably the right time to ask someone to lend their uncontaminated pee to you so you can pass the test.
    However, if that sounds too gross and not feasible, the other option is to use a synthetic urine kit. This might also sound disgusting, but when your career is on the line, synthetic urine might be the only chance to beat the test.
    However, you cannot rely on this since you never know when you will be asked to produce fresh urine samples. The right temperature is also important, or your sample could be rejected.
    How Long Should I Abstain from Weed to Pass the Test?
    As mentioned above, each type of test can detect THC for different periods of time. But, if you have yet to apply for a job and are thinking of preparing for the test by abstaining from weed consumption, you should start it at least 30 days prior to taking the test.
    A detox plan may help you eliminate weed faster, but if you are solely relying on abstaining, you should allow at least a month to rid your system of THC. A chronic stoner might struggle with this, but this is the best way to put your system in the clear zone naturally.
    Regular smokers will need a minimum abstinence of 30 days, but occasional smokers can prepare themselves for drug tests by staying away from drug screens for just ten days. But, the only way to be completely sure that you have rid yourself of weed is to use a self-test kit to gauge your progress.
    What to Expect During the Drug Test
    The drug test is commonly set up at your workplace or in a medical clinic. You will be given all the instructions on how to take the test. A single-stall bathroom is the preferred site for a urine test, and someone of the same gender might monitor while you provide the sample.
    The technician might take additional precautions to ensure the sample is not tampered with. Some precautions you can expect them to take include:
    Removing soap from the site
    Carrying out a site inspection prior to sample collection
    Measuring the temperature of the urine sample
    Putting blue dye in the tank or toilet bowl
    Securing sources of water in the bathroom
    FAQs: How To Pass A Drug Test For Weed
    Q1. Which is the best detox method for a drug test?
    The best way to prepare yourself for a drug test is to follow a detox program that includes multiple methods to flush out traces of the drug from your body. Start drinking plenty of water and take detox drinks or pills to quickly eliminate THC from your system. Also, the more often you pee, the faster this will work.
    Following a healthy routine and diet plan may also aid the detoxification process. The sooner you start a detox program, the earlier you can be prepared and assured of testing negative. If you are unsure how to pass a drug test for weed, you should consider consuming a potent detox drink to flush out toxins from your system.
    Q2. How is THC stored in the body?
    You might wonder how the traces of THC can still be present in your body long after the effects of weed are gone. The THC hides in your fat cells and takes a long time to be metabolized. THC may take even longer to be eliminated in overweight people.
    Over 80 types of metabolites are formed from THC, and these are stored in the fat until eliminated through feces and urine.
    Q3. How fast do detox pills work?
    While some pills can get you cleaned in an hour and would create a window of up to six hours where you will test negative for THC, a complete detox program involving these pills should continue for about ten days to completely flush out the traces of the drug.
    Most detox pills claim to permanently cleanse your system in seven days. Some pills, however, claim to create a small window of a few hours before your test will come up negative. You can take these pills within one to two hours to have the desired effect.
    Q4. Does alcohol detox THC?
    It might sound convenient to you, but it can make things worse. Alcohol will, in fact, boost THC levels in your body. Therefore, it is not recommended to drink alcohol while you are detoxing.
    Instead, you should go with proven detox methods like lemon juice, detox pills, healthy diet, abstinence, etc., rather than experiment with other things that might increase THC in your body and make it harder to pass the drug test.
    Q5. How does the THC leave your body?
    When THC has been successfully metabolized and passed into the bloodstream, it is transported to the bowels, kidneys, and skin to leave your body. 60% of it will leave as feces, while the rest will leave as urine and sweat.
    Metabolism of THC begins in the liver and is converted into metabolites (11-OH-THC, and THCCOOH). The same enzyme that works on alcohol is used in this process. Whether you ingest or inhale THC, your metabolism works the same way.
    11-OH-THC is predominantly excreted through faeces while THCCOOH is mostly passed through urine.
    Q6. Will exercise help my detox program?
    THC is stored in lipid tissues, so when you exercise and burn fat, it helps the detox process in your body. Exercise promotes the release of toxins from fats. Once these find their way into your kidneys, they are filtered out and sent to the bladder, where the THC metabolites are excreted through urine.
    Sweating also helps remove toxins, and it makes exercise an effective way to aid your detox program. So, working out while following a detox program may help increase your chance of testing negative for THC when the date of the drug test arrives.
    Q7. What is a 10-panel drug test?
    A 10-panel drug test is administered in professions that entail dangerous work or when the employee is responsible for the safety of others. The test typically looks for marijuana, cocaine, opiates, benzodiazepines, barbiturates, methadone, PCP, amphetamines, propoxyphene, and Quaaludes. The people who are typically asked to take this test are:
    Medical professionals
    State, federal, or local government employees
    Law enforcement officials
    A 5-day detox program is recommended to prepare for a 10-panel drug test. You can use detox pills and drinks to speed up the process, and a healthy diet and routine would also contribute to flushing out THC from your system.
    Q8. What happens if the test turns out to be inconclusive or invalid?
    It is not uncommon for the test to turn out inconclusive. This could be due to several reasons. If you have been using a home detox drink, it may cause the urine to be stripped of important indicators that the testers look for. An error in the testing procedure can also be responsible for the test results being inconclusive.
    You will be asked to take a retest if the report of a drug test comes inconclusive or if it is considered invalid due to the sample not being in the correct state.
    If you are following a detox program that includes taking a detox drink, take B-vitamin pills so the urine sample is of the right color and does not make the test technician suspicious. Also, the urine should be the right temperature or the technician will ask you to produce another fresh sample.
    Q9. How do you prepare for a hair test?
    Imagine purchasing synthetic urine for your upcoming drug test and finding out that it will be your hair that will give away the weed that you smoked just a few days back. There is a way to prevent that. You can use a hair detox shampoo that will cleanse your hair follicles deeply to eliminate traces of THC.
    It is always best to cover every front rather than risk your job for that occasional puff of weed. Including a hair detox shampoo in your detox program will further improve your chances of passing the drug test. But, you will need several washes for the drug traces to fade away from your scalp.
    If you have limited time until the drug test, you can take multiple showers every day to speed up the cleansing process. You can continue using your normal shampoo along with a special detox shampoo.
    Q10. Can you rely on detox methods to pass a drug test?
    Detoxing is a process that might take some time. The longer you have, the better your chances are to come clean for drugs. Not everyone gets enough time to follow through the detox process completely. There are a variety of ways to speed up your detox process. Some take more time, while others may help create a small window where you will test negative.
    A natural cleanse will help eliminate THC from your system, but it takes more than a month to work.
    Detox pills may produce quick and effective results, but you will need at least a week for this method to flush out THC from your body.
    Detox drinks are the fastest way to temporarily remove THC and are best if you have the test on the same day.
    If detoxing is not an option, synthetic urine can help you avoid testing positive. But, it can be detected and is therefore quite risky.
    If you have plenty of time to detox at home, there are a number of home remedies to try like lemon juice, apple cider vinegar, etc.
    Q11. What will happen if I test positive on a drug test?
    Starting a detox program a few days before taking the drug test will reduce your chance of testing positive for THC. You can also get yourself a urine test kit to make sure the detox process is working for you. However, if you do not have sufficient time and if fake urine is not an option, you might test positive for drugs.
    There will probably be a re-test to confirm the results, and if you test positive again, you might be given a chance to explain your reasons for taking the drug. It should be an acceptable medical reason for you to avoid losing your job. The review officer will then share this with your employer.
    If the drug test is a part of the screening process for hiring, you will probably lose the opportunity and join the pool of unemployed. But, if you have been a long-term employee, there is a possibility that they might give you a chance to get clean from drugs and retake the test after some time.
    Conclusion: Safe Ways To Pass A Weed Drug Test In 2022:
    A drug test can catch you by surprise, especially if you have recently been using weed. The duration of THC staying in the body varies from person to person, and it is hard to predict if the drug test will find traces of weed in your body.
    If you are unsure, you can also take the self-drug test to find out for sure. If you want to start a THC detox program to flush out THC from your system, there are several ways you can do so.
    You never know what kind of drug test you might be asked to take. Some tests can detect drug use that was quite recent, while other tests work better at finding traces left by drug use many months back. Complete detoxification is your best bet if you have a few days to follow the program.
    But, there are also detox drinks that can give you instant results and create a small window where your urine sample will reveal no traces of THC. So, if your employer has just informed you of an imminent drug test, it is better to start detoxing than stress about it.

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